杭州浙大迪迅生物基因工程有限公司

[IF:14.71]

DOI: 10.1111/all.15876

Background:Numerous risk scores have been developed to predict childhood asthma. However, they may not predict asthma beyond childhood. We aim to create childhood risk scores that predict development and persistence of asthma up to young adult life.

Results:Four models were generated for prediction of each asthma outcome. ASthma PredIctive Risk scorE (ASPIRE)-1: a 2-factor model (recurrent wheeze [RW] and positive skin prick test [+SPT] at 4 years) for asthma at 18 years (sensitivity: 0.49, specificity: 0.80, AUC: 0.65). ASPIRE-2: a 3-factor model (RW, +SPT and maternal rhinitis) for asthma at 26 years (sensitivity: 0.60, specificity: 0.79, AUC: 0.73). ASPIRE-3: a 3-factor model (RW, +SPT and eczema at 4 years) for PA-18 (sensitivity: 0.63, specificity: 0.87, AUC: 0.77). ASPIRE-4: a 3-factor model (RW, +SPT at 4 years and recurrent chest infection at 2 years) for PA-26 (sensitivity: 0.68, specificity: 0.87, AUC: 0.80). ASPIRE-1 and ASPIRE-3 scores were replicated externally. Further assessments indicated that ASPIRE-1 can be used in place of ASPIRE-2-4 with same predictive accuracy.

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Correspondence: S. NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, MP 810, F Level, South Block, Southampton General Hospital, Tremona Road, Southampton, SO16 6YD, UK.